Great News for the Economy provided by a Top Local Economist!
Dr. Fuller, one of region’s top economists with George Mason Center for Regional Analysis, spoke today about where we’ve been and where we can expect to be heading in the near future. I summarized his PowerPoint below:
- The first quarter 2009 will be the worst quarter since the 1982 recession, which lasted 16 months. He predicted that the recession we’re in now will last between 17 to 19 months. Where are in that cycle? The 14th month.
- So what’s the good news? “By the time you’re back from your summer vacations our regional economy will start to perform better,” said Fuller.The DC region will enter a recovery cycle in about 5 to 6 months. As before, our region will bounce back before most of the nation.
- Need to buy a house? The residential market is about through its downward cycle here. Residential permits for housing in the District were higher in December 2008 then they were in December 2007.
- Need to finance a house? He predicted that mortgage rates would drop to around 4% within the next two months; and, most likely increase to between 6% – 7% by 2011 due to inflationary pressures.
- So what about the job market? Unemployment usually lags behind the economy by about two years. The unemployment rate will most likely rise to 9.5%, peaking in the first quarter 2010. Nationally, job losses could continue through 2011. Predictions for job growth for the DC metro region in 2009 are between 20,000 – 23,700 new jobs (these are full-time workers – not self employed, contract workers, or part-timers). Our average job growth is around 45,000 jobs per year in this region.
- The Federal government will increase its presence in our market growing to 33.3% of the employment sector. Associations will shrink some, and health, education, and the professional service sectors will continue job growth.